Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
