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"I will be sitting in the same position by 2027," the Prime Minister stated, noting that if our conversation was successful, he might invite us into Downing Street for another conversation in 2026.

There is rarely ever time off for those in the top job. In the hour before our chat started, the PM had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to work out precisely had occurred in Venezuela, where his big political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was much longer than typical, had ended, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

With the new year begins, the Prime Minister appears to have had a kind of a refresh. Maybe even just a little a rest with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly appeared to have put him in a more positive mood than at the difficult conclusion of 2025, a terrible annus horribilis for him.

Yet, are he and his colleagues kidding themselves if they believe his standing are set to turn around?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable reality for the leader is that many of his fellow MPs believe he's not very good at his job. Several of them would rather gamble and oust him in 2026.

However Starmer was rejecting the idea in the interview on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he insisted he'd be "judged at the next election", maintaining nobody would remove his term from him – despite the fact that the best chance of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 might be for Labour to replace leader.

"We are in the fight of our lifetime and I plan to guide the party," he declared.

The Spring Test

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be assessed far sooner than then – in a major set of elections in May throughout the UK. He attempted to contend, maybe too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – in part. But even though he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would resign, should one of his colleagues challenged him for the job, should those elections be disastrous for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the public was naturally eager for things to change. He aimed to persuade me, and the public, that this year would be distinct.

The economy would strengthen in the face of rising unemployment, he said, when strategies the administration implemented during their first turbulent year began to bear fruit.

• He vowed to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, although he did not set a firm date on that.
• He noted too, with the qualification that it was not a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He stated for the first occasion that Western partners were now discussing how to integrate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.

His core argument is that soon the country will "see an improvement".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have communicated with renewed vitality than I've seen from him for a while – more relaxed, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite encountering demands from within his own party for a more decisive strategy, with much more political vision, more urgency, more speed and more urgency, his points were familiar ones.

When he finds himself in this much political peril, should he consider a different script?

No government, and especially not one that has been unpopular for many months, has everything its own way.

Sir Keir's challenges are not only because governing is difficult, but because he and his team have faltered, including in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an outcry when comments he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer blamed "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is facing clear political perils as the year unfolds. His alliance with the US president acquires a new risk after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the thought he would be at ease with these events seems implausible.

International Law and Brexit

He asserted he was a "career-long proponent of international law" but we "just do not have the entire story at the moment".

Opponents called for him to denounce it before we spoke. And the government is expected to face increased demands to give an clear view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also long been bubbling desire in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the consequences of Brexit.

Sir Keir denies he's heading in that direction, but his new specific plan to move closer with the single market – the vast economic European trading zone – will likely provoke accusations that he is reneging on his promise never to try to undo the choices that followed Brexit.

A move to align with more of the single market will please some on his backbenches, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to