Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
