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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still