Daily Killings in Mexico Fall 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The average number of everyday homicides monthly in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new administrative figures. But, security specialists have cautioned that homicide figures could fail to signal enhanced countrywide security.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of almost 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September of last year. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded over these months is remarkably significant,” the President said, noting that the previous month the least amount of homicides were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Violent organized crime infighting, combined with the administration's highly militarised efforts to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper drop in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater coordination between various agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts cautioned that relying on homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was additionally problematic because it could hide periods when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still plagued by severe bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.