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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.